繼續看好港股市場 今年內恒指將升破33484點

在去年8月底時, 馭風發表了「堅定看好港股明年底前恒指將創歷史新高」這文章, 認為恒指將會在2021年內升破歷史高位33484點, 當時恒指在25000-26000點水平。

而上週恒指的高位已經接近28700, 「破頂」之路已經走了一半, 對於恒指將在今年內能創歷史新高我們仍然感到樂觀。在舊文中的分析, 我們看好港股的睇法是建基於我們對宏觀經濟、基本面和資金流向的分析。今日再檢視一次, 這三個因素並未有改變, 甚至乎是更強烈的利好。

宏觀經濟方面, 歐美的疫情仍然在水深火熱當中, 還要一段時間才有望重啟經濟, 年內聯儲局削減購債規模的可能性極低, 2021年將會繼續水浸。而在基本面, 中國經濟表現現時領先全世界, 經濟活動已經大致回復正常, 從一些跨國企業的財報可以印證這一點, 例如 Nike在中國的銷售數字在2020年Q3同Q4是非常好的。

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一鳥在手投資法 降新經濟股比重

上期說到,本欄會講今年的投資策略其實聚焦在一個關鍵問題,「隨着新冠疫苗開始在全球接種,經濟活動能否在今年重啟,出現復甦?」答案如果是會的話,很大機會資金今年將重新部署傳統經濟行業。那麼,去年炒得火熱的新經濟行業在估值方面會有多少影響?
阿米除了是專欄作者,亦從事資產管理業務, 我們在去年年底曾拍短片分享今年投資部署,其中一個重要概念就是上述的「新舊互易」。去年大家仍普遍覺得沽出新經濟股、換入舊經濟股的策略,只屬中短期板塊輪動,長遠並不可行,表面原因是就算經濟正常化,舊經濟股增長周期性極強而且空間有限,相反「破壞性創新」則是憧憬無限;實際上卻是股價作怪,舊經濟股價由偏低估值反彈,就算買入價位不錯,食盡整個升浪亦不過七成至一倍回報,與不少新經濟股去年「倍倍聲」升幅相比明顯不夠看,新晉股民只會不屑一顧。

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今年美股想贏 先戒兩大惡習

新年伊始,本該講新一年策略,不過阿米認為要做好交易,還是先改壞習慣為好,近來散戶在美股參與度之高是前所未見,雖然美股自去年3月後可說一直升到尾,不過年底仍有不少人來信「問診」,綜合主要有兩種交易問題。

第一種筆者稱為「賭馬式思維」。不知何故,不少人開始操作不久就會忘記要分散投資,全部資金只會集中買入兩三隻股份,情況有如一個人用整副身家進馬場買條「三串七」一樣。近期就有位讀者來信求救,買入筆者近期推介的一隻美股中型股,不過其注碼就高達總資金五成,筆者急救只有叫即時減倉。

其實中型股加上以技術分析主導短炒操作,注碼本應不多於資金10%,這是阿米常說,注碼管理就是資產管理中的三大支柱之一,甚至說這是機構投資者與散戶的關鍵分別。

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